Bundeswehr at home? Unlikely, but …
It is an eternal dispute in German Security debates: What makes more sense: a progressive militarization of the police or a release of specific policing scenarios for the German Army, the Bundeswehr? To anticipate the answer: It’s complicated.
Indeed, not everyone involved would see it that way because, for the police, the matter should be clear: They are the decisive authority — and often also the last, because nothing’s left after deploying the SWAT team (SEK in German). But are there any scenarios that go beyond a SEK’s capabilities? Theoretically: yes, no question — especially in times of a close-by war. It is enough to look at Ukraine or Belarus, and one can easily imagine that scenarios are conceivable below the threshold of a warlike conflict that could significantly challenge a SEK. In these scenarios, an infantry unit might be the better choice after all, for several reasons:
Numbers: 50 armed enemy forces, with excellent military training, extensive war experience, and the corresponding will, in a house-to-house combat operation in the middle of Berlin and already the capital’s colported approx. 100 SEK officers are likely to reach their limits quickly.
Equipment: Let’s imagine these 50 forces in appropriately equipped vehicles, robust, (lightly) armored, possibly with drones or even helicopters, and already the “Survivor R,” the only armored special vehicle of its performance class in the Berlin police, is on the defensive.
Armament: a particularly critical point. A few dozen bazookas and similar equipment can, technically, quickly get into the German capital in a couple of trunks or vans, machine guns, sniper rifles, and tens of thousands of rounds of ammunition.
Training: Once again, it is much more critical. Hard-bitten special forces, who physically go well and truly beyond all limits, are likely to be mercilessly superior in training.
Tactics: War tactics aim at destruction and conquest — far from a democratic police force.
Mindset: The most crucial point. Even the best SEK officer will likely face a tough challenge with a war-experienced commando soldier. We are currently experiencing — via the Internet with gruesome detail — what Russian soldiers are capable of because of the war in Ukraine. In some cases, things are happening that seem almost inconceivable to civilized people. Minimum human rights standards? Not at all.
Of course, one could argue that in such a case, the police should be equipped by the Bundeswehr — vehicles, weapons, ammunition — and the legally compliant fight against this terrorist force can begin. But even then, training and — above all — mindset would still be lacking. Unless that is, one should be willing to enter this somewhat unequal fight because using the military at home still seems out of the question. This can be decided politically, but we must live with the consequences.
From the point of view of security research, this very extreme scenario is unlikely because, in the end, it is — fortunately — not so easy to send a large group of soldiers into a foreign country without attracting attention somewhere or somehow. Flawless and seamless Intelligence and police observation and analysis make the difference here. Nevertheless — and this is also part of security research — “high-impact, low-probability” risks must not be ignored, especially when politically sensitive issues are at stake. Ultimately, the German society must decide whether to leave certain risks entirely to the police or to use the military in individual cases. It would be helpful not to hold the debate only when it’s too late.
